Two Systems To Put On Your Radar
Yes, you read that right. We have two chances for snow in the next four days. Timing, location, and small temperature changes are the main drivers of these events, so that's what we will focus on here.
The first round is Thursday/Friday. A cold front will pass through the area bringing much colder air behind it. You can see on the map above this model suggests some of you will see snow from this and some of you will see rain. This all comes down to timing. Precip will likely start as rain during the mid-afternoon, but as temperatures fall through the evening (like normal) and the cold air behind the front moves in, that rain could switch to light snow by Friday morning. Temperatures will be in the 40s when this starts, but the upper 20s by Friday morning.
Round two comes in over the weekend; Saturday-Monday. We are using images from the European model below because (as of this writing), it looks more accurate than the GFS. With a blocking high pressure to our east and the strong low in southern Canada, we expect this low pressure to track a bit farther north than the GFS shows. The European model is reflects that northern displacement.
We could see a few showers very late Saturday in our southern counties, but most of the moisture arrives Sunday. Temperatures Sunday morning start in around 30 in the metro and upper 20s in the surrounding counties before climbing only into the middle 30s for highs. That thermal profile means most precip would fall as snow, but we could see all forms mixed in at some point in the day.
Monday has a similar temperature profile, but we will start to lose the moisture toward the end of the day. Because the GFS keeps the low farther south, it clears the moisture out very early Monday morning. In that solution, Monday would be dry and cold. However, we have seen time and again these lows moving up from our southwest slow down a bit. Once we are on the back (west) side of the low, we will be in the coldest air so it's more likely we will see snow Monday.
Precipitation type in a fluid system is one of the hardest things to forecast, so we do expect there will be changes in the coming days concerning the weekend system. Please continue to check back here and on WDRB TV for our latest updates. You can also follow me on social media using the links below to make sure you never miss a blog post from us.